How drones are shaping the future of wars

Theoretically, a drone is the ‘perfect’ weapon — fast to deploy, hard to detect, capable of precision strikes without risking a pilot’s life, and relatively inexpensive. And it has changed how countries engage in conflict.In the standoff between India and Pakistan, the drone lay at the centre of military planning. Drones have played a crucial role in the Russia-Ukraine war, too. Just as trenches defined and shaped the Great War (WWI), all wars of this century will have their distinctive drone signature.A brief history of dronesEarly attempts at unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) date back over a century. During World War I, both Britain and the US experimented with the first pilotless aircraft. Britain’s radio-controlled ‘Aerial Target’ was tested in 1917, and the US developed the Kettering ‘Bug’ aerial torpedo in 1918. Neither saw combat use in that war, but they demonstrated the concept of remote-controlled flight. In the interwar period, drones were primarily developed as aerial targets for gunnery practice. In 1935, the UK created the DH.82B Queen Bee radio-controlled target drone – the term ‘drone’ itself originates from this name. During World War II, unmanned technology advanced incrementally. True UAV development accelerated in the Cold War. By the 1950s–1960s, the US was using small remote-controlled reconnaissance drones to spy over hostile territory without risking pilots. During the Vietnam War, reconnaissance UAVs were deployed on a large scale for the first time. It wasn’t until the late 20th century that several technological leaps enabled the modern drone revolution. Endurance was one key improvement: in the 1970s, engineers developed UAV airframes with long, glider-like wings that could stay aloft for 24+ hours. This loitering capability was used extensively in the Balkan wars of the 1990s. The next leap was real-time video and remote control via satellites – by transmitting footage and control signals through satellite links, drones could be operated from thousands of miles away and deliver live intelligence to commanders. The final breakthrough came around 2000, when the US outfitted a Predator drone with Hellfire missiles, making it the first armed drone capable of precision strikes. This transformation from unarmed surveillance asset to a hunter-killer platform profoundly changed military doctrine. After 9/11, the US massively expanded drone operations for counterterrorism. UAVs evolved from simply spying to also firing missiles at insurgent and terrorist targets. The proliferation began in the past decadeThe last 10 years have witnessed explosive growth in the use and spread of military drones worldwide. Around 2015, drone technology was largely held by a few nations – primarily the US and Israel for high-end systems, with China beginning to export affordable models. Since then, dozens of countries have joined the drone club, either through imports or indigenous development. While in the early 2010s only the US and UK had armed drones, by 2022 at least 26 states had acquired medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) armed drones or built them domestically. The pace accelerated in the past five years. Turkiye’s entry into the market has been a major factor. Turkish-made drones like the Bayraktar TB2 were exported to 15 countries from 2021–2023. China, similarly, has continued exporting its Wing Loong and CH-series armed drones. By early 2024, it was estimated that over 40 countries possess MALE-class armed drones. These are the different types of drones. medium121106846 medium121106860 medium121106880 medium121106894 medium121106905When did India first use military drones?The Indian Army first used UAVs during the 1999 Kargil War. Indian Air Force pilots had to fly risky photo-recon missions over mountainous terrain, leading to at least one Canberra spy plane being shot down. Israel then supplied India with a small number of unmanned aircraft (Searcher and Heron drones), which helped locate enemy positions along the Line of Control.This initial success spurred India to formally acquire drones after the war. In 2002, India purchased an initial batch of Israeli Searcher Mk II tactical drones and Heron medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) drones. Since then, Israel has remained the principal supplier of UAVs to India’s military.The Indian Air Force also bought the Harpy anti-radar drone in the 2000s from Israel. The Harpy is a kamikaze or suicide drone that homes in on enemy radar emissions (possibly used while taking down the Lahore air defence system last week). In 2009, India expanded its arsenal with a $100 million purchase of 10 newer Harop loitering attack drones from Israel Aerospace Industries. The Harop (an improved variant of Harpy) can autonomously seek and destroy targets like radar sites or vehicles by crashing into them with an explosive payload. By 2021, India also secured the Heron TP/Mark 2, an updated Israeli MALE drone with potential for higher endurance and payload. India has also shown interest in American drones – it has leased two MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones for maritime surveillance (inducted around 2020) and has been in negotiations to purchase MQ-9 Reaper/Predator B armed drones from the US. An order for up to 30 MQ-9B drones was signed last October. This will significantly add to India’s long-range strike and ISR capabilities.Meanwhile, India has been developing an indigenous drone industry, with several UAVs and drone systems and many in various stages of development and procurement. Here are some key government sector ones in use:Nishant is a multi-mission UAV used for battlefield surveillance and reconnaissance, target tracking & localisation, and artillery fire correction. One of the earlier systems inducted by the armed forces, it is now in limited use.Panchi is a variant of Nishant with capability of conventional take-off and landing. It carries payloads like daylight camera, infrared camera and laser designator. Is capable of surveillance, reconnaissance, target location detection and artillery fire correction. Lakshya is a cost-effective re-usable high subsonic aerial target system powered by a gas turbine engine and launched either from land or ship. And these are private sector ones in use:SWITCH is a fixed wing hybrid UAV. Is used for long range, high endurance, high altitude last mile surveillance and security operations.SkyStriker can locate and strike targets with a 5kg or 10kg warhead installed inside the fuselage. This kamikaze drone has a range of 100km. Ideal for covert ops at low altitude. In the pipeline from the government sector, a key drone, in the same class as Israeli Heron drones, is the Tapas-BH. A MALE UAV with an operating altitude of 30,000 ft, it has an endurance of 24 hours and a range of 250 km. It can carry a variety of payloads up to a maximum of 350 kg. It’s designed to perform ISR missions. Is in the same class as Israeli Heron drones. medium121106952 medium121107010What was used last week?India employed its Israel-supplied armed drones in combat for the first time against Pakistan. On May 7–8, the Indian military conducted a series of coordinated attacks on terrorist infrastructure and Pakistani air defence sites. It launched waves of loitering munitions (Harop drones) to destroy high-value targets.Each Harop can loiter over the target area, identify radar or communications emissions, and then dive onto the source, effectively acting as a homing missile. Pakistan, on the other hand, also used drones as offensive weapons during the conflict. On the nights of May 8 and 9, swarms of drones were detected breaching Indian airspace in 26 locations across a broad front – from Kashmir in the north to Rajasthan. Many of these were armed with explosives. The Indian Army and Air Force had to rapidly activate their air defence network to shoot these down.Experts noted that the Heron Mk II surveillance drones supplied by Israel were also deployed by India during this crisis to provide continuous intelligence on Pakistani troop movements and missile deployments.They have been used extensively in the Ukraine-Russia warBoth Russia and Ukraine have employed a vast array of UAVs, making this arguably the largest drone war in history. From the outset of the invasion in Feb 2022, Ukraine leveraged its fleet of Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 armed drones to significant effect. In the war’s early weeks, TB2 strikes destroyed Russian tanks, armoured vehicles, and even naval assets. However, as the invasion progressed, Russia adjusted – deploying denser anti-air defences and electronic jammers – which significantly curtailed large UAV operations. If the utility of big, slow-moving drones like the TB2 waned over time, other categories of drones have only grown in prominence on the Ukraine battlefield. Small reconnaissance and attack drones – including commercial quadcopters and DIY “FPV” (first-person-view) kamikaze drones – are ubiquitous. Both Ukrainian and Russian infantry units deploy off-the-shelf quadcopter drones (DJI Mavic-type) for real-time reconnaissance, artillery spotting, and even ad-hoc bomb drops. These inexpensive drones have become a staple for frontline awareness. At the same time, purpose-built loitering munitions and kamikaze drones are being used in great numbers.The lead image is a creative visualisation