Mark Carney vs Pierre Poilievre: Who will win Canada elections 2025? What polls predict?

Recent polling data suggests a tight race in Canada's 2025 federal election, with former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney's Liberals holding a slight edge over Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives.
Multiple polling firms indicate the Liberals are positioned to secure the most seats, though the final outcome remains uncertain. In Canada, here are 343 seats in the House of Commons, out of which 172 seats are needed to gain the majority.

Forum Research's April 27 poll shows the Liberals at 43% compared to the Conservatives' 39%, a margin consistent with findings from other major polling firms. Nanos Research reports similar numbers, with the Liberals at 43% and Conservatives at 40%, reflecting a race that has tightened in recent weeks.
Mainstreet Research projects the Liberals to win approximately 189 seats, giving them a 70% chance of forming a majority government. However, the Conservatives are on track for their strongest showing since 2011, despite facing challenges in key battleground regions.
The electoral map shows distinct regional patterns. The Liberals maintain strong support in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, while leading by roughly 7 percentage points in vote-rich Ontario. Conservative strength remains concentrated in Alberta and the Prairie provinces, with British Columbia emerging as a crucial battleground.
Both the NDP and Bloc Québécois have seen their support decline, potentially benefiting the Liberals, particularly in Quebec and British Columbia.
Carney vs Poilievre
Carney, who assumed Liberal leadership in March following Justin Trudeau's resignation, has leveraged his economic expertise and international experience to position himself as a steady hand during uncertain times. His approach to US relations and economic management has resonated with many voters, though some Canadians express fatigue with Liberal governance after nearly a decade under Trudeau.
Conservative leader Poilievre has focused his campaign on economic affordability and public safety, finding strong support in Western Canada. However, his confrontational style on cultural issues and US relations has reportedly caused some centrist voters to hesitate.
While recent polls from Abacus Data and Innovative Research Group confirm the Liberals' narrow lead, the election's outcome may hinge on Carney's ability to address economic concerns and national unity while managing international relations. Meanwhile, Poilievre's strong base in Western Canada keeps the Conservatives within striking distance as election day approaches.